全球四大会计事务所之一德勤(Deloitte)近日发布报告，对全球医药领域TOP12巨头自2010年以来的研发投入及回报进行了统计分析，包括辉瑞、罗氏、诺华、赛诺菲、葛兰素史克、强生、阿斯利康、默沙东、礼来、百时美施贵宝、武田、安进。
报告显示，自2010年以来，全球TOP12巨头共推出了143个产品，预期的终生收入为9550亿美元。同期，有236项资产推进至后期开发阶段，预期的终生收入为11710亿美元。
2010年至2013年药物研发（R&D）回报率一路下跌，但在2014年首次出现上升，从2013年的5.1%上升至2014年的5.5%；尽管变化不大，但经过3年的连续下跌，这一上扬仍然是值得欢迎的。分析师指出，有迹象表明，医药研发回报率正迎来拐点；然而，开发一种新药的成本仍在继续上涨，这一数字在2014年达到了14.01亿美元。
另外，尽管赢家不断涌现，但产品开发的经济驱动因素非常复杂，当具体到每个公司时变化非常大，5.5%的数字背后其实还隐藏着巨大的变化。不过，该份报告并没有公开点名2014年那些药企是赢家，那些是输家。
该报告指出，以下战略因素可能对研发受益产生影响：
公司规模——按收入或研发（R&D）支出衡量，规模越大的公司，开发每项资产的成本越高，回报越低；
外部创新——对于大多数（75%）公司，只有不到一半的预期收入来自于企业内部发现的化合物。对所有12家巨头而言，从后期开发阶段的创新产生的预期收入中有58%从外部获得。
投资关注——研发管线所关注的治疗领域越少，似乎所带来的回报越高。
德勤(Deloitte)生命科学研发战略负责人Neil Lesser指出，医药领域的研发生态系统正在经历一场变革，行业巨头必须仔细评估如何获取、培育和商业化创新成果。我们已经发现，TOP12巨头中有些药企比其他药企做的要好，同时正在收获更大的回报。
目前，大多数的行业价值正来源于外部创新，这些外部资产正表现出较高的未来预期。各大公司需要考虑自身是否已经在人才、流程、基础架构、数据方面进行了更有效的投资，以便使公司从长远来看更有能力成功开展富有成效的合作，而不损害获得的利益。（生物谷Bioon.com）
报告原文：Measuring the return from pharmaceutical innovation 2014 : Turning a corner?
英文原文：R&D returns are getting better, but not by much and not for everyone, report says
After three years of declining returns on R&D spend, the 12 largest operations have finally achieved an uptick in what they receive for each dollar of outlay. But the result is more of a bottoming out than a major turnaround, with returns still well below levels seen in 2010 and at least one company posting a negative yield.
The data were collated by Deloitte for its annual report on the return from biopharma R&D, which has become an increasingly downbeat read over the past few years. Last year, the return on investment sunk to around 5%--half of the level achieved in 2010--and Deloitte's stab at the contentious cost of getting a drug to market was $1.3 billion. Now though, some metrics have improved. Not by much, but after three years of ever-decreasing returns the uptick is welcome.
Returns at the 12 largest R&D operations rose to 5.5%. However, the reversal comes despite continued increases in the cost of developing a drug. "We continue to see a relentless rise in the costs to develop a new medicine--this year to [$1.4 billion]--with little change to the billions of dollars of value lost from products failing in the final stage of development," Julian Remnant, head of Deloitte's European R&D advisory practice, said in a statement.
The 5.5% figure also hides huge variation from company to company. Deloitte tracked performance at Pfizer ($PFE), Roche ($RHHBY), Novartis ($NVS), Sanofi ($SNY), GlaxoSmithKline ($GSK), Johnson & Johnson ($JNJ), AstraZeneca ($AZN), Merck ($MRK), Eli Lilly ($LLY), Bristol-Myers Squibb ($BMY), Takeda and Amgen ($AMGN). One of these companies achieved returns of 11.7%. Another scraped together negative 0.7%.
Having looked at--but not publicly named--the winners and losers of 2014, Deloitte has a few ideas about what it takes to succeed, or at least not fail as badly as the competition. The data show return on investment is inversely correlated with R&D spend, so the biggest companies get the least bang for their buck. And companies that focus their pipelines on a few therapeutic areas seem to do better.
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