乐观的销售预测在某种程度上给阿斯利康拒绝收购的底气，也代表了公司内部研发活力的转变。然而，市场对阿斯利康的积极目标能否不负众望仍存有一些质疑。
分析师们对阿斯利康的研发线变得越来越青睐。瑞银集团的Alexandra Hauber本周写道，“一致意见似乎越来越过时了，因为许多市场竞争者可能被限制或仅仅太慢而不能跟上阿斯利康的步伐。”目前，阿斯利康关键的是要保持这种势头，不仅要强化其研发转型实事求是的观点，还要杜绝股票价格的疲软，因为它可能诱发来自辉瑞的再次收购。
下面是阿斯利康期望在下一步的进展中将能起到重要作用的5款研发线产品：
MEDI4736
阿斯利康的PD-L1抗体可以说是其研发线上的重中之重，阿斯利康对MEDI4736的峰值销售预测是65亿美元，但该公司在开发竞赛中仍落后于百时美施贵宝、默沙东和罗氏。这些产品能否获得成功仍存在争议，这意味着对阿斯利康来说，关键问题是如何能将MEDI4736与其它竞争产品区别开来。
该公司称，MEDI4736的区别在于它可能成为首款获批在3期试验中用于此前接受过化疗的非小细胞肺癌(NSCLC)患者的PD-1/PD-L1抗体。仅仅这一适应症就有机会实现20亿美元的额峰值销售。
Tremelimumab
对于MEDI4736的商业机会，阿斯利康CEO Pascal Soriot强调，65亿美元的峰值销售预测包含所有重要的合并用药机会，这些合并用药有望在PD-1/PD-L1产品的应用中扮演重要角色。
一些分析师表示，在阿斯利康的验发现上，Tremelimumab也值得特别关注。
在临床试验中，这款药物是仅有的第二款抗CTLA4抗体（另一款是百时美施贵宝的伊匹单抗，该药获批用于黑色瘤治疗，并正在测试与其它药物合用治疗一系列其它肿瘤）。
最近几个月，由于百时美施贵宝发布的肺癌数据不及预期，抗CTLA4产品可能成为中坚产品的说法失去了一些吸引力。
AZD9291
AZD9291进入后期临床试验、通过上市审评并进入商业领域的进程在未来12-18个月有望快速推进。这款不可逆EGFR靶向酪氨酸激酶抑制剂旨在治疗那些对现有EGFR抑制剂产生耐受性的NSCLC患者。来自一家小型生物技术公司Clovis Oncology的CO-1686是阿斯利康产品的主要竞争产品。
这两款产品均被FDA授予突破性治疗药物资格，但在阿斯利康的努力下，AZD9291在开发上获得快速进展，缩小了与CO-1686的差距。分析师们对阿斯利康提交到ASCO有关AZD9291的摘要中所涉及的少量间质性肺疾病病例表示谨慎，他们认为就整体临床资料来讲，这可能为Clovis提供了一个轻微的优势。
复方糖尿病产品(SGLT-2/DPP-4)
从目前的趋势看，阿斯利康可能成一个全面发展的糖尿病药物玩家，但其在这一市场是否能成为一个领跑者尚未得到证实。
最近披露的消息表明，阿斯利康可能成为首家推出SGLT-2抑制剂与DPP-4抑制剂（达格列净与沙格列净）复方药物的制药厂家。阿斯利康可能于今年底提交该复方药物的上市申请。
最近披露的达格列净/沙格列净复方药物的关键数据似乎证明与诺和诺德的利拉鲁肽一样有效，但复方药物是方便的口服剂型，下个月将在美国糖尿病协会会议上发布的体重减轻数据值得关注。
Benralizumab
呼吸系统是阿斯利康一个比较感兴趣的领域，旗下福莫特罗在美国市场是一款畅销产品。
在阿斯利康研发线上有一款抗IL-5R抗体Benralizumab，这款药物正被开发用于严重哮喘治疗，其潜在的年销售额可能会达到20亿美元。投资者将不得不等待一些时间,以观察该预测是否可信，因为3期数据要到2016年发布。
彭博产业分析师指出，最近来自美国胸科协会(ATS)会议的数据为这款产品奠定了坚实的后盾。这款药物不仅有一个8周给药一次的用药方案（竞争产品为一个月），而且Benralizumab可以使攻击型免疫细胞衰竭，而不是简单地抑制其活性。
FirstWord Lists – Five key products in AstraZeneca's pipeline – can they deliver?
Pfizer's month-long pursuit of AstraZeneca has provided the backdro to an earlier than expected 'R&D turnaround' narrative at the UK drugmaker. This story has continued to gain notable momentum over the past two weeks, as AstraZeneca has released a series of new data disclosures for mid- and late-stage pipeline compounds.
Bullish revenue forecasts have in part been shaped by the defensive posturing of AstraZeneca's senior management, but also appear to represent a shift in the company's internal R&D dynamics. Nevertheless, there remains some doubt as to whether the company can deliver on its aggressive targets; former head of R&D at Pfizer John LaMattina recently suggested that proposed organic growth of 75 percent over the next decade – largely driven by the pipeline – would represent a "remarkable" feat.
Analysts, however, are becoming increasingly comfortable with AstraZeneca's pipeline story. UBS' Alexandra Hauber wrote this week that "consensus looks increasingly outdated, as many market competitors may be restricted or are simply too slow to keep up with AstraZeneca's pace." The key for AstraZeneca now is to retain this momentum; not only to reinforce the view that its R&D turnaround is material, but to insulate against any weakness in its share price that could trigger a second opportunistic approach from Pfizer.
FirstWord takes a look at five pipeline products that AstraZeneca hopes will play a key role in its next stage of evolution...
MEDI4736
AstraZeneca's PD-L1 antibody is arguably the jewel in the crown of its pipeline and provides the company an opportunity to compete in the first generation of checkpoint inhibitor immuno-oncology (IO) products.
AstraZeneca's own non-risk adjusted peak sales for MEDI4736 are $6.5 billion, but the company remains behind Bristol-Myers Squibb, Merck & Co. and Roche in the development race. Whether all of these players can 'win' remains a moot point, meaning that the key question for AstraZeneca is how it can differentiate MEDI4736 from competing products?
A point of differentiation, argues the company, is the potential for MEDI4736 to become the first PD-1/PD-L1 antibody to be approved for stage III non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC) in patients who have undergone chemotherapy. This indication represents a peak $2 billion opportunity alone, adds Hauber, although she concedes that any of the other IO players could quickly follow AstraZeneca's lead with the PACIFIC study.
Tremelimumab
In detailing the commercial opportunity for MEDI4736, AstraZeneca CEO Pascal Soriot was at pains to stress that the company's $6.5 billion peak forecast encompasses the all-important combination opportunities that are expected to play a pivotal role in shaping the usage of PD-1/PD-L1 products.
According to some analysts, partially offsetting AstraZeneca's earlier-stage pipeline in IO is the breadth of checkpoint inhibitors that have rapidly emerged in early-stage clinical testing, with a particular focus on tremelimumab.
The drug – somewhat ironically in-licensed from Pfizer – is only the second anti-CTLA4 antibody in clinical testing (the other being Bristol-Myers Squibb's Yervoy, which is approved for the treatment of melanoma and is being tested in a range of other tumours as a combination agent).
The thesis that anti-CTLA4 products could emerge as 'backbone' therapies in IO has lost some of its appeal in recent months owing to weaker than expected data presented by Bristol-Myers Squibb in lung cancer. That said, the jury is very much still out and tremelimumab offers AstraZeneca a combination opportunity that Merck and Roche don't have.
AZD9291
The progression of AZD9291 into late-stage testing, through to regulators and subsequently into the commercial arena is expected to occur rapidly over the next 12-18 months. The irreversible EGFR-targeting tyrosine kinase inhibitor – designed essentially to treat those NSCLC patients who develop resistance to current EGFR inhibitors – is cast in a David and Goliath story with AstraZeneca's key competitor being Clovis Oncology, a much smaller biotech company who is developing CO-1686.
Both products have been granted breakthrough therapy status by the FDA, but it is with AZD9291 wher AstraZeneca has shown tangible acceleration of its development efforts to close the gap with Clovis. Analysts are cautious towards a small number of interstitial lung disease cases in AstraZeneca's ASCO abstracts for AZD9291, which they suggest may provide Clovis a slight edge in terms of overall clinical profile. Full ASCO data and the speed at which AstraZeneca can push the drug towards regulators appears critical to its chances of success at this stage.
Combination diabetes product (SGLT-2/DPP-4)
AstraZeneca may have become a fully fledged diabetes player by virtue of buying out Bristol-Myers Squibb from its previously operated joint venture, but its credentials in the market – certainly as a pace-setter – remain unproven.
A recent disclosure illustrates, however, that AstraZeneca could potentially be the first player to deliver the combination of a SGLT-2 inhibitor and DPP-4 inhibitor (dapagliflozin and saxagliptin) to the market. With the company inferring that regulatory filing could occur by the end of the year, AstraZeneca appears to have leapfrogged Eli Lilly and Boehringer Ingelheim in this particular race.
Recently disclosed top-line data for the dapagliflozin/saxagliptin combination would appear to demonstrate comparable efficacy to Novo Nordisk's Victoza, but offer the added convenience of oral dosing. Thus a key disclosure to watch will be weight-loss data to be presented at next month's ADA meeting (June 13-17).
Benralizumab
One of the more interesting opportunities for AstraZeneca is in the respiratory space, wher its long-established Symbicort franchise is currently enjoying something of a renaissance in the US market.
"While we believe (AstraZeneca's) $8 billion peak revenue estimate for overall respiratory sales may be optimistic given the sluggish launch of GSK's Breo [Ellipta] and competition within the LAMA/LABA and LAMA/LABA/ICS area, we continue to believe AstraZeneca's respiratory biologics franchise is widely underappreciated," suggests Leerink Swann analyst Seamus Fernandez.
One such product – the anti IL-5R antibody benralizumab, which is being developed for the treatment of severe asthma – is a potential $2 billion per-year drug, argues the company. Investors will have to wait some time to see if this prediction has substance, with Phase III data due to be published in 2016. Analysts at Bloomberg Industries have pointed out, however, that data from the recent American Thoracic Society (ATS) meeting is shaping a strong profile for the product; not only is the compound being developed with a "significantly differentiated" eight-week dosing schedule (versus monthly dosing for key rivals), but benralizumab "depletes offending immune cells rather than simply inhibiting their activation," potentially providing it a best-in-class profile.
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